The UGLY truth about the Covid-19 lockdowns - Nick Hudson, co-founder of PANDA 393,833 views•Mar 26, 2021; 27:02 min.

The UGLY truth about the Covid-19 lockdowns - Nick Hudson, co-founder of PANDA 393,833 views•Mar 26, 2021; 27:02 min.
16.7K subscribers
PANDA (Pandemics – data and analysis) has been outspoken with regards to the policy-makers' reaction to Covid-19, lockdowns and other approaches to the virus. Its viewpoints have ruffled feathers over the past year, with many in the establishment openly hostile towards the group of actuaries, accountants, economists and other professionals who participate in the global think tank. Nick Hudson, co-founder of PANDA, spoke at the inaugural BizNews Investment Conference in March 2021. Here's his keynote address.
- Joseph O
2 days ago (edited)
"The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those that speak it." ~ George Orwell
Joseph O
1 day ago
“No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth.” ~ Plato
- Dr Andre J
1 day ago
I am a doctor with 53 years of general practice. I am ashamed of what medical practitioners have done this past year. Bur those that dare to speak the truth get silenced. Well done. I 👍 with all that is said.
- Valeriu Tudorica
1 day ago
Even the people I thought they were intelligent are buying the pandemic story. They also obey the new rules. Now they wait to be told what to do next. No sense of common sense. They do not even try to think. What a shame.
- K Kartha
4 days ago
"Sheep spend their whole lives living in fear of the wolf only to be eaten by the shepherd." Proverb worth revisiting....
Maria Lamb
1 day ago
I can personally attest to the psychological disorders in children. My neighbors little girl is now afraid of going to school not because she’s afraid of getting sick....... she’s just afraid of being around people. The lockdown created in her a fear that she did not have before. She is 12 years old. Lockdowns have destroyed our economy, our unity, our community, and has negatively impacted our mental health.
- sam1953
1 day ago
Some glimmer of hope. Recently my personal physician and my girlfriend's doctor have come out to us privately and said many of the things that are presented in this video. However, both of them are very afraid that if their medical societies find out, they will be punished.
Steve Martin
2 days ago (edited)
Former biology lab director of about 15 years here (Temple University Japan). Nick is spot on correct.
From what little I know about statistics, the scientific method, and social-psychology — we are going to need more than the naked truth here. Do not be fooled by either the obscure scientific jargon or perverse incentives of institutionally dependent scientists. Artists and activists everywhere ... it is not 'talent' that defines what you do. It is courage.
Laurieann Jacobs
1 day ago
I am outraged at the medical community and doctors I once admired who are allowing this to continue.

Lessons From the Success of COVID-19 Control in Taiwan April 06-21

JAMA Internal Medicine


Original Investigation

June 15, 2020


March 30, 2020

Views 2,134 

Citations 0 

Editor's Note

April 6, 2021

Lessons From the Success of COVID-19 Control in Taiwan

JAMA Intern Med. Published online April 6, 2021. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.1625



Taiwan, an island nation of about 24 million people, has been extraordinarily successful in containing COVID-19. As of March 2021, there had been only 10 deaths and slightly more than 1000 cases. People live without fear of SARS-CoV-2.1

Even as the pace of vaccinations accelerates, there was still a 7-day moving average of more than 60 000 new COVID-19 cases and 1000 deaths a day in the US in late March 2021, daily totals that were comparable with those during the summer 2020 peak. What lessons does Taiwan’s initial success have for containing the epidemic? The answer is the need for a combination of case-based interventions (including testing, contact tracing, and quarantine) and population-based interventions (including physical distancing and facial masking with wide adherence) for control to be successful. Neither type of intervention alone would be sufficient, even in a country with an effective public health system, comprehensive contract tracing program, control of its borders, and wide adherence to physical distancing and the wearing of facial masks.

In this issue of JAMA Internal Medicine, Ng and colleagues,2 building on an earlier study about the transmission dynamics in Taiwan’s first 100 confirmed cases,3 report a modeling study using the country’s detailed epidemic data to assess the interventions for control. Control requires the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 (the number of secondary cases generated by 1 primary case) to be less than 1. The analysis focused on local transmission of cases, not on border control, to prevent imported cases.

All modeling studies have inherent limitations, with the results dependent on the assumptions and the underlying data. Nonetheless, the findings are instructive. When the epidemic curve was projected through day 60 with 100 initial cases, the daily number of new cases would rise to 37 631 (95% credible interval [CrI], 29 586-46 285) and 481 (95% CrI 320-736) with case-based and population-based interventions alone, respectively.2 In contrast, the combination of both types of interventions contained the epidemic; by day 60, the daily number of new cases would be 1.7 (95% CrI, 0.3-6.7), and by day 84 (95% CrI, 51-137), the daily number would be 0.2

An important reason why population-based interventions are relatively more effective than case-based interventions is the role of presymptomatic transmission; nearly half of transmissions might occur before an individual has symptoms, creating challenges for timely contact tracing and quarantine of high-risk contacts. In contrast, population-based measures, including the wearing of face masks, physical distancing, and the avoidance of crowds, gatherings, and nonessential indoor spaces, can be widely applied irrespective of knowing which individuals are high risk.

Although global vaccination rates for COVID-19 are increasing, in most countries, only a minority of people have been vaccinated. Many nations have yet to start vaccinating, and viral variants are a pressing concern. The promise of vaccination notwithstanding, effective case-based and population-based control of COVID-19 is as urgent as ever.

Article Information

Published Online: April 6, 2021. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.1625

Corresponding Author: Robert Steinbrook, MD, JAMA Internal Medicine, Editorial Office, University of California, San Francisco, 505 Parnassus Ave, Ste M1180, PO Box 0124, San Francisco, CA 94143-0124 (

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: None reported.



Qin  A, Chien  AC. Covid? what Covid? Taiwan thrives as a bubble of normality. Accessed March 13, 2021.


Ng  T-C, Cheng  H-Y, Chang  H-H,  et al.  Comparison of estimated effectiveness of case-based and population-based interventions on COVID-19 containment in Taiwan.   JAMA Intern Med. Published online April 6, 2021. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.1644
ArticleGoogle Scholar


Cheng  H-Y, Jian  S-W, Liu  D-P, Ng  TC, Huang  WT, Lin  HH; Taiwan COVID-19 Outbreak Investigation Team.  Contact tracing assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Taiwan and risk at different exposure periods before and after symptom onset.   JAMA Intern Med. 2020;180(9):1156-1163. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2020.2020
ArticlePubMedGoogle ScholarCrossref


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Dakle, vakcinacija, distanca, maske, bez okupljanja i terevenki. 07-04-21

(Prenosim objašnjenje sa profila kolege Vladice Veličkovića)
Nalazi su sledeći:
- postoji visok predikcioni potencijal neutralizacije titra vakcinom i protekcije od infekcije
- grafik dole pokazuje odnos izmedju dve varijable (koliko nivo neutralizacije je potreban za koliki efekat protekcije).
Ovo je vrlo bitno da bismo mogli da odgovorimo na dva pitanja:
- koliko dugo će protekcija trajati?
- koji sojevi mogu značajno da smanje efikasnost
Da objasnimo šta to znači na primerima:
- kod vakcine sa efikasnošću od 95% (Pfizer) ta efikasnost opasti za 250 dana na 58%.
- vakcina sa efikasnošću od 70% (pretpostavljena za Sinofarm) biće 18% efikasna posle 250 dana (neophonda revakcinacija)
- kod južnoafričkog soja u optimističnom slučaju efikasnost vakcine sa 95% (Pfizer) biće smanjena na 68%
- kod istog soja vakcina sa efikasnošću od 70% (pretpostavljena za Sinofarm) u optimističnom slučaju biće 25% (ispod 50% ne smatra se vakcinom)
Navodim primere sa južnoafričkim sojem kao optimistične jer pretpostavljamo 5 puta sniženje titra iako je u ovom sojevima izmereno smanjenje titra i do 9 puta što može da pogura čak i najefikasnije vakcine ispod granice od 50%.
Dakle, vakcinacija, distanca, maske, bez okupljanja i terevenki.

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